Dynamic threshold modeling of budget changes

Bryan D. Jones, László Zalányi, Frank R. Baumgartner, Péter Érdi

Research output: Conference contribution

Abstract

A family of models was given to explain how the public budgeting process, as a multi-stage institutional decision making mechanism transforms the stimuli characterized by Gaussian distribution to skew, power law distributions. While the annual change is generally incremental, deviations from this incremental changes are more frequent, than the Gaussian distribution suggests. A set of threshold models, reflecting error-accumulation and friction, was suggested. The three-threshold model seems to be good to describe appropriately the basic statistical features of the data.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationComplex Adaptive Systems and the Threshold Effect
Subtitle of host publicationViews from the Natural and Social Sciences - Papers from the AAAI Fall Symposium, Technical Report
Pages61-66
Number of pages6
Publication statusPublished - dec. 1 2009
Event2009 AAAI FAll Symposium - Arlington, VA, United States
Duration: nov. 5 2009nov. 7 2009

Publication series

NameAAAI Fall Symposium - Technical Report
VolumeFS-09-03

Other

Other2009 AAAI FAll Symposium
CountryUnited States
CityArlington, VA
Period11/5/0911/7/09

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Engineering(all)

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  • Cite this

    Jones, B. D., Zalányi, L., Baumgartner, F. R., & Érdi, P. (2009). Dynamic threshold modeling of budget changes. In Complex Adaptive Systems and the Threshold Effect: Views from the Natural and Social Sciences - Papers from the AAAI Fall Symposium, Technical Report (pp. 61-66). (AAAI Fall Symposium - Technical Report; Vol. FS-09-03).