21.3 The NOAA/NWS/NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system: Evaluation of an initial condition vs multiple model physics ensemble approach

Jun Du, Jeff McQueen, Geoff DiMego, Tom Black, Henry Juang, Eric Rogers, Brad Ferrier, Binbin Zhou, Zoltan Toth, Steven Tracton

Research output: Conference article

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

An overview of the current NCEP short range ensemble forecasting (SREF) system that includes breeding initilaization, member configuration, postprocessed products and ensemble based verification tools, was presented. Some of the findings from a comparison study between a multi-IC and multi-physics ensemble approach for short range forecasts, were reported. The preliminary results show that adding physics diversity improves the SREF system's ability to capture more forecast uncertainty. This SREF system product directly supports NCEP's strategic goal of delivering improved probabilistic products and services.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2329-2338
Number of pages10
JournalBulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Publication statusPublished - jún. 1 2004
EventCombined Preprints: 84th American Meteorological Society (AMS) Annual Meeting - Seattle, WA., United States
Duration: jan. 11 2004jan. 15 2004

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ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science

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