### Abstract

The errors in the first-guess (forecast field) of an analysis system vary from day to day, but, as in all current operational data assimilation systems, forecast error covariances are assumed to be constant in time in the NCEP operational three-dimensional variational analysis system (known as a spectral statistical interpolation or SSI). This study focuses on the impact of modifying the error statistics by including effects of the "errors of the day" on the analysis system. An estimate of forecast uncertainty, as defined from the bred growing vectors of the NCEP operational global ensemble forecast, is applied in the NCEP operational SSI analysis system. The growing vectors are used to estimate the spatially and temporally varying degree of uncertainty in the first-guess forecasts used in the analysis. The measure of uncertainty is defined by a ratio of the local amplitude of the growing vectors, relative to a background amplitude measure over a large area. This ratio is used in the SSI system for adjusting the observational error term (giving more weight to observations in regions of larger forecast errors). Preliminary experiments with the low-resolution global system show positive impact of this virtually cost-free method on the quality of the analysis and medium-range weather forecasts, encouraging further tests for operational use. The results of a 45-day parallel run, and a discussion of other methods to take advantage of the knowledge of the day-to-day variation in forecast uncertainties provided by the NCEP ensemble forecast system, are also presented in the paper.

Original language | English |
---|---|

Pages (from-to) | 689-695 |

Number of pages | 7 |

Journal | Weather and Forecasting |

Volume | 12 |

Issue number | 3 PART II |

Publication status | Published - Sep 1997 |

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### ASJC Scopus subject areas

- Atmospheric Science

### Cite this

*Weather and Forecasting*,

*12*(3 PART II), 689-695.

**The use of bred vectors in the NCEP global 3D variational analysis system.** / Pu, Zhao Xia; Kalnay, Eugenia; Parrish, David; Wu, Wanshu; Tóth, Z.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

*Weather and Forecasting*, vol. 12, no. 3 PART II, pp. 689-695.

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - The use of bred vectors in the NCEP global 3D variational analysis system

AU - Pu, Zhao Xia

AU - Kalnay, Eugenia

AU - Parrish, David

AU - Wu, Wanshu

AU - Tóth, Z.

PY - 1997/9

Y1 - 1997/9

N2 - The errors in the first-guess (forecast field) of an analysis system vary from day to day, but, as in all current operational data assimilation systems, forecast error covariances are assumed to be constant in time in the NCEP operational three-dimensional variational analysis system (known as a spectral statistical interpolation or SSI). This study focuses on the impact of modifying the error statistics by including effects of the "errors of the day" on the analysis system. An estimate of forecast uncertainty, as defined from the bred growing vectors of the NCEP operational global ensemble forecast, is applied in the NCEP operational SSI analysis system. The growing vectors are used to estimate the spatially and temporally varying degree of uncertainty in the first-guess forecasts used in the analysis. The measure of uncertainty is defined by a ratio of the local amplitude of the growing vectors, relative to a background amplitude measure over a large area. This ratio is used in the SSI system for adjusting the observational error term (giving more weight to observations in regions of larger forecast errors). Preliminary experiments with the low-resolution global system show positive impact of this virtually cost-free method on the quality of the analysis and medium-range weather forecasts, encouraging further tests for operational use. The results of a 45-day parallel run, and a discussion of other methods to take advantage of the knowledge of the day-to-day variation in forecast uncertainties provided by the NCEP ensemble forecast system, are also presented in the paper.

AB - The errors in the first-guess (forecast field) of an analysis system vary from day to day, but, as in all current operational data assimilation systems, forecast error covariances are assumed to be constant in time in the NCEP operational three-dimensional variational analysis system (known as a spectral statistical interpolation or SSI). This study focuses on the impact of modifying the error statistics by including effects of the "errors of the day" on the analysis system. An estimate of forecast uncertainty, as defined from the bred growing vectors of the NCEP operational global ensemble forecast, is applied in the NCEP operational SSI analysis system. The growing vectors are used to estimate the spatially and temporally varying degree of uncertainty in the first-guess forecasts used in the analysis. The measure of uncertainty is defined by a ratio of the local amplitude of the growing vectors, relative to a background amplitude measure over a large area. This ratio is used in the SSI system for adjusting the observational error term (giving more weight to observations in regions of larger forecast errors). Preliminary experiments with the low-resolution global system show positive impact of this virtually cost-free method on the quality of the analysis and medium-range weather forecasts, encouraging further tests for operational use. The results of a 45-day parallel run, and a discussion of other methods to take advantage of the knowledge of the day-to-day variation in forecast uncertainties provided by the NCEP ensemble forecast system, are also presented in the paper.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0031225182&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=0031225182&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:0031225182

VL - 12

SP - 689

EP - 695

JO - Weather and Forecasting

JF - Weather and Forecasting

SN - 0882-8156

IS - 3 PART II

ER -