The economic value of ensemble-based weather forecasts

Yuejian Zhu, Z. Tóth, Richard Wobus, David Richardson, Kenneth Mylne

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

142 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

An economic value analysis based on a simple cost-loss model was carried out on minimally postprocessed 500-hPa geopotential height model output from low-resolution ensemble and low- and high-resolution control forecasts. It was found that a wider range of potential users can benefit from the ensemble than from the control forecasts, compared to relying simply on climatological information. Furthermore, for most users the ensemble offers more economic value than the control forecasts.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)73-83
Number of pages11
JournalBulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Volume83
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 2002

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weather
economics
geopotential
cost
forecast
loss
analysis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

The economic value of ensemble-based weather forecasts. / Zhu, Yuejian; Tóth, Z.; Wobus, Richard; Richardson, David; Mylne, Kenneth.

In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 83, No. 1, 2002, p. 73-83.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Zhu, Y, Tóth, Z, Wobus, R, Richardson, D & Mylne, K 2002, 'The economic value of ensemble-based weather forecasts', Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 83, no. 1, pp. 73-83.
Zhu, Yuejian ; Tóth, Z. ; Wobus, Richard ; Richardson, David ; Mylne, Kenneth. / The economic value of ensemble-based weather forecasts. In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2002 ; Vol. 83, No. 1. pp. 73-83.
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