Regional differences between ambient temperature and incidence of Lyme disease in Hungary

Attila Trájer, János Bobvos, Katalin Krisztalovics, A. Páldy

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

The regional climate impacts on Lyme borreliosis (LB) or Lyme disease have not been studied yet in Hungary. By this study we want to contribute the assessment of the impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases. Our aim was to assess the influence of regional spatial-temporal differences of annual temperature conditions, as well as the start of the vegetation season on LB. We created climatic contrast by selecting three southwestern (Zala, Somogy, Baranya; henceforth: SW) and two northeastern (Nógrád and Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén: NE) counties in Hungary. Weekly LB data and the site of infection on county level for 1998-2010 were gained from the National Epidemiologic and Surveillance System. The temperature data were retrieved from the European Climate Assessment and Dataset. The regional differences of the weekly LB incidence were studied in relation to regional temperature differences. Descriptive statistics, linear and polynomial regression models were applied. We observed a 1.6 °C difference in the mean winter temperatures between the two regions: the mean winter temperature of the NE counties was under 0 °C, in the SW counties it was more than 1 °C. In the SW counties spring warming started 2 weeks earlier, and there were only 3 weeks in the year, when the weekly mean temperature sank below 0 °C by few tenths of a degree. In the NE counties, this period lasted for 8 weeks continuously. The first day with mean temperature of 10 °C followed by days with mean temperature > 8 °C was chosen as start of spring. Based on this criterion and according of a linear regression model, in 2010 spring started by 2.5 weeks earlier in the two NE counties, less than 1 week earlier in the three SW counties compared to the beginning year of 1998. A difference of 3 weeks was observed in the detection of 10 cases of LB per week between the 2 NE and 3 SW counties, and there was a 3-4 weeks difference between the annual LB maxima. Comparing the periods of 1998-2003 and 2005-2010, the peak of the LB season sifted from the 28th to the 29th weeks in the NE counties, while in the SW counties this 176 shift did not reach one week difference. In the NE counties, the cumulative LB incidence showed a 25.68 % increase in periods 1999-2004 and 2005-2010 in the SW counties the same increase was 30.55%.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)175-186
Number of pages12
JournalIdojaras
Volume117
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2013

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Lyme disease
temperature
county
winter
climate effect
regional climate

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Indicator species
  • Ixodes ricinus
  • Lyme borreliosis
  • Regional climatic differences
  • Vector-borne disease

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

Regional differences between ambient temperature and incidence of Lyme disease in Hungary. / Trájer, Attila; Bobvos, János; Krisztalovics, Katalin; Páldy, A.

In: Idojaras, Vol. 117, No. 2, 04.2013, p. 175-186.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Trájer, A, Bobvos, J, Krisztalovics, K & Páldy, A 2013, 'Regional differences between ambient temperature and incidence of Lyme disease in Hungary', Idojaras, vol. 117, no. 2, pp. 175-186.
Trájer, Attila ; Bobvos, János ; Krisztalovics, Katalin ; Páldy, A. / Regional differences between ambient temperature and incidence of Lyme disease in Hungary. In: Idojaras. 2013 ; Vol. 117, No. 2. pp. 175-186.
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