A 21. század végén várható regionális éghajlatváltozás Magyarországon

Translated title of the contribution: Regional climate change expected in Hungary by the end of the 21st century

J. Bartholy, Rita Gelybó Györgyi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

In the frame of the European Union 5th Program, the project PRUDENCE provides climate estimations for the last three decades of the 21st century for the entire European continent. The applied regional climate models used 50 km as the horizontal spatial resolution, and evaluated the A2 and B2 global emission scenario. On the basis of the results from the project PRUDENCE, expected climate change estimations are summarized for Hungary for the 2071-2100 period. Our results suggest that in case of temperature, a warming trend is evident in the Carpathian Basin both on annual and seasonal scales. The largest temperature increase is projected for summer, 4.8°C (A2) and 4.0°C (B2), while the smallest seasonal warming is expected in spring, 3.1°C (A2) and 2.5°C (B2). The expected change of annual total precipitation is slightly negative, but not significant. However, significantly large and opposite trends are expected in different seasons. Seasonal precipitation amount is very likely to increase in winter (by 23-37% in case of A2, and by 20-27% in case of B2), while it is expected to decrease in summer (by 24-33% in case of A2, and by 10-20% in case of B2). These results implies that the annual distribution of precipitation is expected to be restructured: the wettest summer season may become the driest (especially in case of A2 scenario), and the driest winter is expected to be the wettest by the end of the 21st century. It is evident that all these climate processes affect agricultural activity and disaster management strategy. In order to prepare for the changing climate conditions, results of this robust regional climate change analysis may serve as basic information until spatially (10 km resolution) and temporally (nearer future) more detailed regional climate model simulations are completed and quality-controlled results are available for further impact studies.

Original languageHungarian
Pages (from-to)147-167
Number of pages21
JournalHungarian Geographical Bulletin
Volume56
Issue number3-4
Publication statusPublished - 2007

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twenty first century
Hungary
regional climate
climate change
climate
climate modeling
summer
warming
disaster management
winter
climate conditions
European Union
scenario
spatial resolution
temperature
trend
simulation model
disaster
basin
simulation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)
  • Geography, Planning and Development

Cite this

A 21. század végén várható regionális éghajlatváltozás Magyarországon. / Bartholy, J.; Györgyi, Rita Gelybó.

In: Hungarian Geographical Bulletin, Vol. 56, No. 3-4, 2007, p. 147-167.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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abstract = "In the frame of the European Union 5th Program, the project PRUDENCE provides climate estimations for the last three decades of the 21st century for the entire European continent. The applied regional climate models used 50 km as the horizontal spatial resolution, and evaluated the A2 and B2 global emission scenario. On the basis of the results from the project PRUDENCE, expected climate change estimations are summarized for Hungary for the 2071-2100 period. Our results suggest that in case of temperature, a warming trend is evident in the Carpathian Basin both on annual and seasonal scales. The largest temperature increase is projected for summer, 4.8°C (A2) and 4.0°C (B2), while the smallest seasonal warming is expected in spring, 3.1°C (A2) and 2.5°C (B2). The expected change of annual total precipitation is slightly negative, but not significant. However, significantly large and opposite trends are expected in different seasons. Seasonal precipitation amount is very likely to increase in winter (by 23-37{\%} in case of A2, and by 20-27{\%} in case of B2), while it is expected to decrease in summer (by 24-33{\%} in case of A2, and by 10-20{\%} in case of B2). These results implies that the annual distribution of precipitation is expected to be restructured: the wettest summer season may become the driest (especially in case of A2 scenario), and the driest winter is expected to be the wettest by the end of the 21st century. It is evident that all these climate processes affect agricultural activity and disaster management strategy. In order to prepare for the changing climate conditions, results of this robust regional climate change analysis may serve as basic information until spatially (10 km resolution) and temporally (nearer future) more detailed regional climate model simulations are completed and quality-controlled results are available for further impact studies.",
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