Lack of seasonality in occurrence of pericarditis, myocarditis, and endocarditis

Nils Skajaa, E. Puhó, Kasper Adelborg, Hans Erik Bøtker, Kenneth R. Rothman, Henrik Toft Sørensen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Purpose: The etiology of pericarditis, myocarditis, and endocarditis is predominantly infectious, and infections often show seasonal variation. Little is known, however, about seasonal patterns in these cardiopathies. Methods: Using Danish health care registries, we identified all patients with a first-time hospital-based diagnosis of pericarditis, myocarditis, or endocarditis between 1994 and 2016. We estimated peak-to-trough ratios from fitted sine curves to measure the intensity of seasonal variation in occurrence during the study period. Because randomness will lead to small apparent seasonal patterns, we also conducted a plasmode simulation to assess the degree of seasonality that randomness would produce. Results: Crude peak-to-trough ratios of monthly frequencies summarized over a year were small. We estimated a peak-to-trough ratio of 1.10 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05–1.14) for pericarditis, 1.11 (95% CI, 1.02–1.21) for myocarditis, and 1.01 (95% CI, 1.00–1.07) for endocarditis. The simulated mean peak-to-trough ratios found after randomly reassigning the monthly frequencies within each year were 1.04 (95% CI, 1.00–1.09) for pericarditis, 1.04 (95% CI, 1.00–1.13) for myocarditis, and 1.04 (95% CI, 1.00–1.10), for endocarditis. Conclusion: The data indicate no important seasonal variation in the occurrence of pericarditis, myocarditis, and endocarditis in Denmark between 1994 and 2016.

Original languageEnglish
JournalAnnals of Epidemiology
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 1 2019

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Pericarditis
Myocarditis
Endocarditis
Confidence Intervals
Denmark
Registries
Delivery of Health Care
Infection

Keywords

  • Cardiovascular inflammation
  • Peak-to-low ratios
  • Random error
  • Seasonal variation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Epidemiology

Cite this

Lack of seasonality in occurrence of pericarditis, myocarditis, and endocarditis. / Skajaa, Nils; Puhó, E.; Adelborg, Kasper; Bøtker, Hans Erik; Rothman, Kenneth R.; Sørensen, Henrik Toft.

In: Annals of Epidemiology, 01.01.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Skajaa, Nils ; Puhó, E. ; Adelborg, Kasper ; Bøtker, Hans Erik ; Rothman, Kenneth R. ; Sørensen, Henrik Toft. / Lack of seasonality in occurrence of pericarditis, myocarditis, and endocarditis. In: Annals of Epidemiology. 2019.
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abstract = "Purpose: The etiology of pericarditis, myocarditis, and endocarditis is predominantly infectious, and infections often show seasonal variation. Little is known, however, about seasonal patterns in these cardiopathies. Methods: Using Danish health care registries, we identified all patients with a first-time hospital-based diagnosis of pericarditis, myocarditis, or endocarditis between 1994 and 2016. We estimated peak-to-trough ratios from fitted sine curves to measure the intensity of seasonal variation in occurrence during the study period. Because randomness will lead to small apparent seasonal patterns, we also conducted a plasmode simulation to assess the degree of seasonality that randomness would produce. Results: Crude peak-to-trough ratios of monthly frequencies summarized over a year were small. We estimated a peak-to-trough ratio of 1.10 (95{\%} confidence interval [CI], 1.05–1.14) for pericarditis, 1.11 (95{\%} CI, 1.02–1.21) for myocarditis, and 1.01 (95{\%} CI, 1.00–1.07) for endocarditis. The simulated mean peak-to-trough ratios found after randomly reassigning the monthly frequencies within each year were 1.04 (95{\%} CI, 1.00–1.09) for pericarditis, 1.04 (95{\%} CI, 1.00–1.13) for myocarditis, and 1.04 (95{\%} CI, 1.00–1.10), for endocarditis. Conclusion: The data indicate no important seasonal variation in the occurrence of pericarditis, myocarditis, and endocarditis in Denmark between 1994 and 2016.",
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AB - Purpose: The etiology of pericarditis, myocarditis, and endocarditis is predominantly infectious, and infections often show seasonal variation. Little is known, however, about seasonal patterns in these cardiopathies. Methods: Using Danish health care registries, we identified all patients with a first-time hospital-based diagnosis of pericarditis, myocarditis, or endocarditis between 1994 and 2016. We estimated peak-to-trough ratios from fitted sine curves to measure the intensity of seasonal variation in occurrence during the study period. Because randomness will lead to small apparent seasonal patterns, we also conducted a plasmode simulation to assess the degree of seasonality that randomness would produce. Results: Crude peak-to-trough ratios of monthly frequencies summarized over a year were small. We estimated a peak-to-trough ratio of 1.10 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05–1.14) for pericarditis, 1.11 (95% CI, 1.02–1.21) for myocarditis, and 1.01 (95% CI, 1.00–1.07) for endocarditis. The simulated mean peak-to-trough ratios found after randomly reassigning the monthly frequencies within each year were 1.04 (95% CI, 1.00–1.09) for pericarditis, 1.04 (95% CI, 1.00–1.13) for myocarditis, and 1.04 (95% CI, 1.00–1.10), for endocarditis. Conclusion: The data indicate no important seasonal variation in the occurrence of pericarditis, myocarditis, and endocarditis in Denmark between 1994 and 2016.

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