Inferring the interplay between network structure and market effects in Bitcoin

Dániel Kondor, I. Csabai, János Szüle, Márton Pósfai, G. Vattay

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

22 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A main focus in economics research is understanding the time series of prices of goods and assets. While statistical models using only the properties of the time series itself have been successful in many aspects, we expect to gain a better understanding of the phenomena involved if we can model the underlying system of interacting agents. In this article, we consider the history of Bitcoin, a novel digital currency system, for which the complete list of transactions is available for analysis. Using this dataset, we reconstruct the transaction network between users and analyze changes in the structure of the subgraph induced by the most active users. Our approach is based on the unsupervised identification of important features of the time variation of the network. Applying the widely used method of Principal Component Analysis to the matrix constructed from snapshots of the network at different times, we are able to show how structural changes in the network accompany significant changes in the exchange price of bitcoins.

Original languageEnglish
Article number125003
JournalNew Journal of Physics
Volume16
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2 2014

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digital systems
principal components analysis
lists
economics
histories
matrices

Keywords

  • Bitcoin, transaction network
  • financial network
  • principal component analysis
  • temporal network

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Physics and Astronomy(all)

Cite this

Inferring the interplay between network structure and market effects in Bitcoin. / Kondor, Dániel; Csabai, I.; Szüle, János; Pósfai, Márton; Vattay, G.

In: New Journal of Physics, Vol. 16, 125003, 02.12.2014.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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