Estimation of future precipitation conditions for Hungary with special focus on dry periods

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

16 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In this paper, estimated trends ofprecipitation- and drought-related climate indices and the return period of the daily precipitation amount are analyzed. For this purpose 11 regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the ENSEMBLES project with 25 km horizontal resolution for the emission scenario A1B are used after applying a bias-correction procedure. According to the results, the summer 10- and 20-year return periods will increase by a factor of 1.2–2 by the late 21st century relative to the 1961–1990 reference period. The projected changes are considerably smaller for the other three seasons compared to future summer changes. Furthermore, drought-related climate indices in summer are projected to increase significantly in Hungary as well as in Central/Eastern Europe by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, precipitation-related indices are projected to decrease in summer by 2071–2100 compared to 1961–1990.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)305-321
Number of pages17
JournalIdojaras
Volume118
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - Oct 1 2014

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twenty first century
summer
return period
drought
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regional climate
climate modeling
simulation
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Eastern Europe
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trend

Keywords

  • Bias correction
  • Dry period
  • Precipitation index
  • Regional climate model simulation
  • Return period

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

Estimation of future precipitation conditions for Hungary with special focus on dry periods. / Pongrácz, R.; Bartholy, J.; Kis, Anna.

In: Idojaras, Vol. 118, No. 4, 01.10.2014, p. 305-321.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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