Effects of macro-circulation on local climatic conditions of plant development

J. Mika, József Molnár, Károly Tar

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Agricultural or ecological impact studies, related to future climate changes, require highly resolved meteorological input data both in space and time. Since present climate models can not fulfill this requirement, gaps between the necessary and available resolution, are filled by downscaling. A possible way to downscale GCM-output fields into regional climate scenarios can be to consider the changes in the frequency distribution of model-generated macro-circulation types and to combine them with conditional climatology of each macro-type. This approach can be successful, if a great part of local climate anomalies is connected to frequency anomalies of the macro-types. To test this assumption, a diagnostic method for separation of the local climate anomalies into circulation and non-circulation (physical) factors, allowing a mixed term, is developed, applying the subjective classification of pressure patterns by Péczely (1957). Results for monthly and seasonal anomalies of precipitation and temperature are presented for Debrecen, Hungary (47°N, 21°E). The investigated period is 30 years from 1966 to 1995. The main feature of the results is the secondary role of the macro-circulation factor. This conclusion is formulated from the comparison of contributions by these terms to moderate and extreme anomalies; to the standard deviation and to long-term variations; and also from the correlation between the three terms and their sum, i.e. the monthly anomaly. It is impossible, however, to considerthis circulation term as the maximum information contained by a series of macro-types, because the succession of macro-types and conditional relation of the local weather on different days of a given type is not taken into account by the given separation. On the other hand, the circulation term exhibits fair statistical relation to the physical term and also to the whole anomaly in many cases, which is promising considering further improvement of this approach to downscaling based on frequency of macro-synoptic types.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)135-141
Number of pages7
JournalPhysics and Chemistry of the Earth
Volume30
Issue number1-3 SPEC. ISS.
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2005

Fingerprint

Macros
anomalies
anomaly
climate
downscaling
physical factors
Climate models
Climatology
Hungary
climatology
climate models
frequency distribution
climate change
ecological impact
effect
weather
Climate change
regional climate
general circulation model
standard deviation

Keywords

  • Circulation types
  • Climate change
  • Impact
  • Statistical downscaling
  • Weather generator

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geochemistry and Petrology
  • Geophysics

Cite this

Effects of macro-circulation on local climatic conditions of plant development. / Mika, J.; Molnár, József; Tar, Károly.

In: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Vol. 30, No. 1-3 SPEC. ISS., 2005, p. 135-141.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Mika, J. ; Molnár, József ; Tar, Károly. / Effects of macro-circulation on local climatic conditions of plant development. In: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth. 2005 ; Vol. 30, No. 1-3 SPEC. ISS. pp. 135-141.
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