Dynamic control of modern, network-based epidemic models

Fanni Sélley, Ádám Besenyei, Istvan Z. Kiss, L. P. Simon

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

11 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In this paper we make the first steps to bridge the gap between classic control theory and modern, network-based epidemic models. In particular, we apply nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) to a pairwise ODE model which we use to model a susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) epidemic on nontrivial contact structures. While classic control of epidemics concentrates on aspects such as vaccination, quarantine, and fast diagnosis, our novel setup allows us to deliver control by altering the contact network within the population. Moreover, the ideal outcome of control is to eradicate the disease while keeping the network well connected. The paper gives a thorough and detailed numerical investigation of the impact and interaction of system and control parameters on the controllability of the system. For a certain combination of parameters, we used our method to identify the critical control bounds above which the system is controllable. We foresee that our approach can be extended to even more realistic or simulation-based models with the aim of applying these to real-world situations.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)168-187
Number of pages20
JournalSIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems
Volume14
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2015

Fingerprint

Dynamic Control
Epidemic Model
Quarantine
Nonlinear Model Predictive Control
Contact Structure
Vaccination
Numerical Investigation
Control Theory
Controllability
Control Parameter
Model predictive control
Pairwise
Control theory
Model
Contact
Interaction
Simulation

Keywords

  • Adaptive network
  • Nonlinear model predictive control
  • Pairwise model
  • SIS epidemic

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Analysis
  • Modelling and Simulation

Cite this

Dynamic control of modern, network-based epidemic models. / Sélley, Fanni; Besenyei, Ádám; Kiss, Istvan Z.; Simon, L. P.

In: SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems, Vol. 14, No. 1, 2015, p. 168-187.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Sélley, Fanni ; Besenyei, Ádám ; Kiss, Istvan Z. ; Simon, L. P. / Dynamic control of modern, network-based epidemic models. In: SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems. 2015 ; Vol. 14, No. 1. pp. 168-187.
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