Crop planting date matters: Estimation methods and effect on future yields

Laura Dobor, Z. Barcza, Tomáš Hlásny, Tamás Árendás, Tamás Spitkó, Nándor Fodor

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

17 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Productivity of arable lands highly depends on the management techniques and their timing. Climate change urges the need for adaptive management tools, such as methods for optimization of planting date (PD). In existing crop models PD is usually specified by the user as a fixed date or through a set of rules which depend on diverse environmental conditions. However, validated rules of PD calculation are rare in the existing literature. In this study we strived to develop methods that could reliably estimate the PDs based on soil temperature and soil moisture, as well as to provide tool for PD projections under climate change. PD data from 294 agricultural enterprises in Hungary during the period from 2001 to 2010 were used to validate the PD methods. Effect of climate change on the timing of PD was evaluated using an ensemble of 10 climate change projections. Meteorological and soil data were obtained from the Open Database for Climate Change Related Impact Studies in Central Europe (FORESEE) and Soil and Terrain (SOTER) databases. The 4M crop model was used for crop yield simulations. Relative to the present day conditions, our analysis predicts a shift to earlier PDs for maize (approx. 12 days) and later PD for winter wheat (approx. 17 days) for the 2071-2100 period. The results indicated that maize PDs should be changed according to the earlier start of the growing season in spring. In contrast, currently used PDs should be preserved for winter wheat to avoid climate change related yield loss. Our analyses showed that the proposed PD estimation methods performed better than other eight tested methods. The advantage of our novel rules is that they could be applied for other crop models, as well.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)103-115
Number of pages13
JournalAgricultural and Forest Meteorology
Volume223
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jun 15 2016

Fingerprint

planting date
estimation method
crop
crops
climate change
crop models
methodology
winter wheat
wheat
maize
planting
effect
corn
adaptive management
winter
system optimization
arable land
arable soils
Central European region
Hungary

Keywords

  • Crop model
  • Crop yield
  • Maize
  • Management
  • Planting date
  • Winter wheat

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Agronomy and Crop Science
  • Forestry
  • Atmospheric Science
  • Global and Planetary Change

Cite this

Crop planting date matters : Estimation methods and effect on future yields. / Dobor, Laura; Barcza, Z.; Hlásny, Tomáš; Árendás, Tamás; Spitkó, Tamás; Fodor, Nándor.

In: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 223, 15.06.2016, p. 103-115.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Dobor, Laura ; Barcza, Z. ; Hlásny, Tomáš ; Árendás, Tamás ; Spitkó, Tamás ; Fodor, Nándor. / Crop planting date matters : Estimation methods and effect on future yields. In: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 2016 ; Vol. 223. pp. 103-115.
@article{4a57c442feb9485a880becb3a404f7a2,
title = "Crop planting date matters: Estimation methods and effect on future yields",
abstract = "Productivity of arable lands highly depends on the management techniques and their timing. Climate change urges the need for adaptive management tools, such as methods for optimization of planting date (PD). In existing crop models PD is usually specified by the user as a fixed date or through a set of rules which depend on diverse environmental conditions. However, validated rules of PD calculation are rare in the existing literature. In this study we strived to develop methods that could reliably estimate the PDs based on soil temperature and soil moisture, as well as to provide tool for PD projections under climate change. PD data from 294 agricultural enterprises in Hungary during the period from 2001 to 2010 were used to validate the PD methods. Effect of climate change on the timing of PD was evaluated using an ensemble of 10 climate change projections. Meteorological and soil data were obtained from the Open Database for Climate Change Related Impact Studies in Central Europe (FORESEE) and Soil and Terrain (SOTER) databases. The 4M crop model was used for crop yield simulations. Relative to the present day conditions, our analysis predicts a shift to earlier PDs for maize (approx. 12 days) and later PD for winter wheat (approx. 17 days) for the 2071-2100 period. The results indicated that maize PDs should be changed according to the earlier start of the growing season in spring. In contrast, currently used PDs should be preserved for winter wheat to avoid climate change related yield loss. Our analyses showed that the proposed PD estimation methods performed better than other eight tested methods. The advantage of our novel rules is that they could be applied for other crop models, as well.",
keywords = "Crop model, Crop yield, Maize, Management, Planting date, Winter wheat",
author = "Laura Dobor and Z. Barcza and Tom{\'a}š Hl{\'a}sny and Tam{\'a}s {\'A}rend{\'a}s and Tam{\'a}s Spitk{\'o} and N{\'a}ndor Fodor",
year = "2016",
month = "6",
day = "15",
doi = "10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.03.023",
language = "English",
volume = "223",
pages = "103--115",
journal = "Agricultural and Forest Meteorology",
issn = "0168-1923",
publisher = "Elsevier",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Crop planting date matters

T2 - Estimation methods and effect on future yields

AU - Dobor, Laura

AU - Barcza, Z.

AU - Hlásny, Tomáš

AU - Árendás, Tamás

AU - Spitkó, Tamás

AU - Fodor, Nándor

PY - 2016/6/15

Y1 - 2016/6/15

N2 - Productivity of arable lands highly depends on the management techniques and their timing. Climate change urges the need for adaptive management tools, such as methods for optimization of planting date (PD). In existing crop models PD is usually specified by the user as a fixed date or through a set of rules which depend on diverse environmental conditions. However, validated rules of PD calculation are rare in the existing literature. In this study we strived to develop methods that could reliably estimate the PDs based on soil temperature and soil moisture, as well as to provide tool for PD projections under climate change. PD data from 294 agricultural enterprises in Hungary during the period from 2001 to 2010 were used to validate the PD methods. Effect of climate change on the timing of PD was evaluated using an ensemble of 10 climate change projections. Meteorological and soil data were obtained from the Open Database for Climate Change Related Impact Studies in Central Europe (FORESEE) and Soil and Terrain (SOTER) databases. The 4M crop model was used for crop yield simulations. Relative to the present day conditions, our analysis predicts a shift to earlier PDs for maize (approx. 12 days) and later PD for winter wheat (approx. 17 days) for the 2071-2100 period. The results indicated that maize PDs should be changed according to the earlier start of the growing season in spring. In contrast, currently used PDs should be preserved for winter wheat to avoid climate change related yield loss. Our analyses showed that the proposed PD estimation methods performed better than other eight tested methods. The advantage of our novel rules is that they could be applied for other crop models, as well.

AB - Productivity of arable lands highly depends on the management techniques and their timing. Climate change urges the need for adaptive management tools, such as methods for optimization of planting date (PD). In existing crop models PD is usually specified by the user as a fixed date or through a set of rules which depend on diverse environmental conditions. However, validated rules of PD calculation are rare in the existing literature. In this study we strived to develop methods that could reliably estimate the PDs based on soil temperature and soil moisture, as well as to provide tool for PD projections under climate change. PD data from 294 agricultural enterprises in Hungary during the period from 2001 to 2010 were used to validate the PD methods. Effect of climate change on the timing of PD was evaluated using an ensemble of 10 climate change projections. Meteorological and soil data were obtained from the Open Database for Climate Change Related Impact Studies in Central Europe (FORESEE) and Soil and Terrain (SOTER) databases. The 4M crop model was used for crop yield simulations. Relative to the present day conditions, our analysis predicts a shift to earlier PDs for maize (approx. 12 days) and later PD for winter wheat (approx. 17 days) for the 2071-2100 period. The results indicated that maize PDs should be changed according to the earlier start of the growing season in spring. In contrast, currently used PDs should be preserved for winter wheat to avoid climate change related yield loss. Our analyses showed that the proposed PD estimation methods performed better than other eight tested methods. The advantage of our novel rules is that they could be applied for other crop models, as well.

KW - Crop model

KW - Crop yield

KW - Maize

KW - Management

KW - Planting date

KW - Winter wheat

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84962828396&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84962828396&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.03.023

DO - 10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.03.023

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84962828396

VL - 223

SP - 103

EP - 115

JO - Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

JF - Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

SN - 0168-1923

ER -