Comparison of simulated trends of regional climate change in the carpathian basin for the 21st century using three different emission scenarios

Ildikó Pieczka, Rita Pongrácz, Judit Bartholy

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

10 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The present paper discusses the regional climate modeling experiments for the 21st century for the Carpathian Basin using the model PRECIS. The model PRECIS is a hydrostatic regional climate model with 25 km horizontal resolution developed at the UK Met Office, Hadley Centre. Simulated future changes - in mean climatic values, distributions and empirical probabilities - are analyzed for the period 2071-2100 (compared to 1961-1990, as a reference period). Significant warming is projected at 0.05 level for all of the A2, A1B, and B2 scenarios, the largest warming is estimated in summer. Not only the mean value is likely to change, but also the distribution of daily mean temperature. By the end of the century the annual precipitation in the Carpathian Basin is likely to decrease, and the annual distribution of monthly mean precipitation is expected to change. Significant drying is projected in the region in summer, while in winter the precipitation is estimated to increase.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)9-22
Number of pages14
JournalActa Silvatica et Lignaria Hungarica
Volume7
Publication statusPublished - Dec 1 2011

    Fingerprint

Keywords

  • Carpathian basin
  • PRECIS
  • Precipitation
  • Regional climate modeling
  • Temperature

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Forestry

Cite this