A utility of model input uncertainty analysis in transferring tobacco control-related economic evidence to countries with scarce resources

Results from the EQUIPT study

Bertalan Németh, Puttarin Kulchaitanaroaj, Adam Lester-George, Mirjana Huic, Kathryn Coyle, Doug Coyle, Subhash Pokhrel, Z. Kaló

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Aims: To inform the transferability of tobacco control-related economic evidence to resource-poor countries. Methods: We ran a univariate sensitivity analysis on a return on investment (ROI) model, the European study on Quantifying Utility of Investment in Protection from Tobacco model (EQUIPTMOD), to identify key input values to which the ROI estimates were sensitive. The EQUIPTMOD used a Markov-based state transition model to estimate the ROI of several tobacco control interventions in five European countries (England, Germany, Spain, Hungary and the Netherlands). Base case ROI estimates were obtained through average values of model inputs (throughout the five countries), which were then replaced one at a time with country-specific values. Tornado diagrams were used to evaluate the significance of sensitivity, defined as a ≥ 10% difference in ROI estimates from the base case estimates. Results: The ROI estimates were sensitive to 18 (of 46) input values. Examples of model inputs to which ROI estimates were sensitive included: smoking rate, costs of smoking-related diseases (e.g. lung cancer) and general population attributes. Conclusion: Countries that have limited research time and other resources can adapt EQUIPTMOD to their own settings by choosing to collect data on a small number of model inputs. EQUIPTMOD can therefore facilitate transfer of tobacco control related economic evidence to new jurisdictions.

Original languageEnglish
JournalAddiction
DOIs
Publication statusAccepted/In press - Jan 1 2018

Fingerprint

Uncertainty
Tobacco
Economics
Tornadoes
Smoking
Hungary
England
Netherlands
Spain
Germany
Lung Neoplasms
Costs and Cost Analysis

Keywords

  • Economic model
  • Importance analysis
  • Return-on-investment tool
  • Smoking cessation
  • Transferability
  • Variability

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Medicine (miscellaneous)
  • Psychiatry and Mental health

Cite this

A utility of model input uncertainty analysis in transferring tobacco control-related economic evidence to countries with scarce resources : Results from the EQUIPT study. / Németh, Bertalan; Kulchaitanaroaj, Puttarin; Lester-George, Adam; Huic, Mirjana; Coyle, Kathryn; Coyle, Doug; Pokhrel, Subhash; Kaló, Z.

In: Addiction, 01.01.2018.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Németh, Bertalan ; Kulchaitanaroaj, Puttarin ; Lester-George, Adam ; Huic, Mirjana ; Coyle, Kathryn ; Coyle, Doug ; Pokhrel, Subhash ; Kaló, Z. / A utility of model input uncertainty analysis in transferring tobacco control-related economic evidence to countries with scarce resources : Results from the EQUIPT study. In: Addiction. 2018.
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