A note on prediction for discrete time series

Gusztáv Morvai, Benjamin Weiss

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Let {X n} be a stationary and ergodic time series taking values from a finite or countably infinite set X and that f(X) is a function of the process with finite second moment. Assume that the distribution of the process is otherwise unknown. We construct a sequence of stopping times λ n along which we will be able to estimate the conditional expectation E(f(X λn+1)|X 0, . . . ,X λn) from the observations (X 0, . . . ,X λn) in a point wise consistent way for a restricted class of stationary and ergodic finite or countably infinite alphabet time series which includes among others all stationary and ergodic finitarily Markovian processes. If the stationary and ergodic process turns out to be finitarily Markovian (in particular, all stationary and ergodic Markov chains are included in this class) then limn→ ∞n/λ n > 0 almost surely. If the stationary and ergodic process turns out to possess finite entropy rate then λ n is upper bounded by a polynomial, eventually almost surely.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)809-823
Number of pages15
JournalKybernetika
Volume48
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - Sep 14 2012

Keywords

  • Nonparametric estimation
  • Stationary processes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Software
  • Control and Systems Engineering
  • Theoretical Computer Science
  • Information Systems
  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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