• 3956 Citations
  • 31 h-Index
1993 …2020

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Article
2020

A new measure of ensemble central tendency

Feng, J., Zhang, J., Toth, Z., Peña, M. & Ravela, S., Jun 2020, In : Weather and Forecasting. 35, 3, p. 879-889 11 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access

Partition of analysis and forecast error variance into growing and decaying components

Feng, J., Toth, Z., Peña, M. & Zhang, J., Apr 1 2020, In : Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 146, 728, p. 1302-1321 20 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Citation (Scopus)
2019

Self-Correction of Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) Soil Moisture Dry Bias

Lee, J. H., Cosh, M., Starks, P. & Toth, Z., Jan 1 2019, (Accepted/In press) In : Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2018

Comparison of nonlinear local Lyapunov vectors and bred vectors in estimating the spatial distribution of error growth

Feng, J., Li, J., Ding, R. & Toth, Z., Apr 1 2018, In : Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 75, 4, p. 1073-1087 15 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Citations (Scopus)
2016

Ensemble transform sensitivity method for adaptive observations

Zhang, Y., Xie, Y., Wang, H., Chen, D. & Toth, Z., Jan 1 2016, In : Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 33, 1, p. 10-20 11 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

6 Citations (Scopus)
2015

Planning the next decade of coordinated U.S. Research on minutes-to-seasonal prediction of high-impact weather

Majumdar, S. J., Chang, E. K. M., Peña, M., Tatusko, R. & Toth, Z., Mar 1 2015, In : Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 96, 3, p. 461-464 4 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Real-time applications of the variational version of the local analysis and prediction system (vLAPS)

Jiang, H., Albers, S., Xie, Y., Toth, Z., Jankov, I., Scotten, M., Picca, J., Stumpf, G., Kingfield, D., Birkenheuer, D. & Motta, B., Dec 2015, In : Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 96, 12, p. 2045-2057 13 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

7 Citations (Scopus)
2014

Climatology-calibrated precipitation analysis at fine scales: Statistical adjustment of stage IV toward CPC gauge-based analysis

Hou, D., Charles, M., Luo, Y., Toth, Z., Zhu, Y., Krzysztofowicz, R., Lin, Y., Xie, P., Seo, D. J., Pena, M. & Cui, B., Jan 1 2014, In : Journal of Hydrometeorology. 15, 6, p. 2542-2557 16 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

35 Citations (Scopus)

Multiscale data assimilation and forecasting

Toth, Z., Tew, M., Birkenheuer, D., Albers, S., Xie, Y. & Motta, B., Feb 2014, In : Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 95, 2, p. ES30-ES33

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

4 Citations (Scopus)
2013

A twenty-first-century california observing network for monitoring extreme weather events

White, A. B., Anderson, M. L., Dettinger, M. D., Ralph, F. M., Hinojosa, A., Cayan, D. R., Hartman, R. K., Reynolds, D. W., Johnson, L. E., Schneider, T. L., Cifelli, R., Toth, Z., Gutman, S. I., King, C. W., Gehrke, F., Johnston, P. E., Walls, C., Mann, D., Gottas, D. J. & Coleman, T., Sep 17 2013, In : Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology. 30, 8, p. 1585-1603 19 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

39 Citations (Scopus)

International research collaboration in high-impact weather prediction

Chang, E. K. M., Peña, M. & Toth, Z., Nov 1 2013, In : Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 94, 11, p. 149-150 2 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Citation (Scopus)

The DTC ensembles task: A new testing and evaluation facility for mesoscale ensembles

Tollerud, E. I., Etherton, B., Toth, Z., Jankov, I., Jensen, T. L., Yuan, H., Wharton, L. S., McCaslin, P. T., Mirvis, E., Kuo, B., Brown, B. G., Nance, L., Koch, S. E. & Eckel, F. A., Mar 1 2013, In : Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 94, 3, p. 321-327 7 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Citations (Scopus)
2012

Analysis of finescale weather phenomena

Toth, Z., Albers, S. & Xie, Y., Mar 1 2012, In : Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 93, 3, p. ES35-ES38

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

6 Citations (Scopus)

Bias correction for global ensemble forecast

Cui, B., Toth, Z., Zhu, Y. & Hou, D., Apr 1 2012, In : Weather and Forecasting. 27, 2, p. 396-410 15 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

54 Citations (Scopus)

Estimation and calibration of observation impact signals using the Lanczos method in NOAA/NCEP data assimilation system

Wei, M., V. De Pondeca, M. S. F., Toth, Z. & Parrish, D., Dec 1 2012, In : Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics. 19, 5, p. 541-557 17 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Citations (Scopus)

NOAA's future ensemblebased hurricane forecast products

Hamill, T. M., Brennan, M. J., Brown, B., DeMaria, M., Rappaport, E. N. & Toth, Z., Feb 1 2012, In : Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 93, 2, p. 209-220 12 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

15 Citations (Scopus)
2011

Predictability of an atmospheric blocking event that occurred on 15 December 2005

Matsueda, M., Kyouda, M., Toth, Z., Tanaka, H. L. & Tsuyuki, T., Aug 1 2011, In : Monthly Weather Review. 139, 8, p. 2455-2470 16 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

10 Citations (Scopus)
2010

Analysis differences and error variance estimates from multi-centre analysis data

Wei, M., Toth, Z. & Zhu, Y., Dec 1 2010, In : Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal. 59, SPECIAL ISSUE, p. 25-34 10 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

10 Citations (Scopus)

An Earth-system prediction initiative for the twenty-first century

Shapiro, M., Shukla, J., Brunet, G., Nobre, C., Béland, M., Dole, R., Trenberth, K., Anthes, R., Asrar, G., Barrie, L., Bougeault, P., Brasseur, G., Burridge, D., Busalacchi, A., Caughey, J., Chen, D., Church, J., Enomoto, T., Hoskins, B., Hov, Ø. & 20 others, Laing, A., Le Treut, H., Marotzke, J., McBean, G., Meehl, G., Miller, M., Mills, B., Mitchell, J., Moncrieff, M., Nakazawa, T., Olafsson, H., Palmer, T., Parsons, D., Rogers, D., Simmons, A., Troccoli, A., Toth, Z., Uccellini, L., Velden, C. & Wallace, J. M., Oct 2010, In : Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 91, 10, p. 1377-1388 12 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

67 Citations (Scopus)

Characteristics of target areas selected by the ensemble transform Kalman filter for medium-range forecasts of high-impact winter weather

Majumdar, S. J., Sellwood, K. J., Hodyss, D., Toth, Z. & Song, Y., Jul 1 2010, In : Monthly Weather Review. 138, 7, p. 2803-2824 22 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

13 Citations (Scopus)

Controlling noise in ensemble data assimilation schemes

Peña, M., Toth, Z. & Wei, M., May 1 2010, In : Monthly Weather Review. 138, 5, p. 1502-1512 11 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

4 Citations (Scopus)

Diagnostic verification of hydrometeorological and hydrologic ensembles

Demargne, J., Brown, J., Liu, Y., Seo, D. J., Wu, L., Toth, Z. & Zhu, Y., Apr 1 2010, In : Atmospheric Science Letters. 11, 2, p. 114-122 9 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

37 Citations (Scopus)

The thorpex interactive grand global ensemble

Bougeault, P., Toth, Z., Bishop, C., Brown, B., Burridge, D., De Chen, H., Ebert, B., Fuentes, M., Hamill, T. M., Mylne, K., Nicolau, J., Paccagnella, T., Park, Y. Y., Parsons, D., Raoult, B., Schuster, D., Dias, P. S., Swinbank, R., Takeuchi, Y., Tennant, W. & 2 others, Wilson, L. & Worley, S., Aug 1 2010, In : Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 91, 8, p. 1059-1072 14 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

220 Citations (Scopus)
2009

The effect of large-scale atmospheric uncertainty on streamflow predictability

Hou, D., Mitchell, K., Toth, Z., Lohmann, D. & Wei, H., Aug 6 2009, In : Journal of Hydrometeorology. 10, 3, p. 717-733 17 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

6 Citations (Scopus)
2008

An assessment of Bayesian bias estimator for numerical weather prediction

Son, J., Hou, D. & Toth, Z., Nov 3 2008, In : Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics. 15, 6, p. 1013-1022 10 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
2 Citations (Scopus)

Ensemble data assimilation with the NCEP global forecast system

Whitaker, J. S., Hamill, T. M., Wei, X., Song, Y. & Toth, Z., Feb 1 2008, In : Monthly Weather Review. 136, 2, p. 463-482 20 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

262 Citations (Scopus)

Initial perturbations based on the ensemble transform (ET) technique in the NCEP global operational forecast system

Wei, M., Toth, Z., Wobus, R. & Zhu, Y., Jan 1 2008, In : Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography. 60 A, 1, p. 62-79 18 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

182 Citations (Scopus)
2007

Application of the NCEP ensemble prediction system to medium-range forecasting in South Africa: New products, benefits, and challenges

Tennant, W. J., Toth, Z. & Rae, K. J., Feb 1 2007, In : Weather and Forecasting. 22, 1, p. 18-35 18 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

7 Citations (Scopus)

Bridging the gap between weather and climate forecasting: Research priorities for intraseasonal prediction

Toth, Z., Peña, M. & Vintzileos, A., Sep 1 2007, In : Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 88, 9, p. 1427-1429 3 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

14 Citations (Scopus)

Data assimilation and numerical forecasting with imperfect models: The mapping paradigm

Toth, Z. & Peña, M., Jun 2007, In : Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena. 230, 1-2, p. 146-158 13 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

12 Citations (Scopus)

NOAA THORPEX science workshop

Toth, Z. & Majumdar, S. J., May 1 2007, In : Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 88, 5, p. 717-720 4 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Citation (Scopus)
2006

Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter-based ensemble perturbations in an operational global prediction system at NCEP

Wei, M., Toth, Z., Wobus, R., Zhu, Y., Bishop, C. H. & Wang, X., Jan 1 2006, In : Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography. 58, 1, p. 28-44 17 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

72 Citations (Scopus)

ENSO bred vectors in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models

Yang, S. C., Cai, M., Kalnay, E., Reinecker, M., Yuan, G. & Toth, Z., Apr 15 2006, In : Journal of Climate. 19, 8, p. 1422-1436 15 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

39 Citations (Scopus)
2005

A comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP global ensemble prediction systems

Buizza, R., Houtekamer, P. L., Toth, Z., Pellerin, G., Wei, M. & Zhu, Y., May 1 2005, In : Monthly Weather Review. 133, 5, p. 1076-1097 22 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

416 Citations (Scopus)
2003

A new measure of ensemble performance: Perturbation versus error correlation analysis (PECA)

Wei, M. & Toth, Z., Aug 1 2003, In : Monthly Weather Review. 131, 8 PART 1, p. 1549-1565 17 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

39 Citations (Scopus)

Bred vectors of the Zebiak-Cane model and their potential application to ENSO predictions

Cai, M., Kalnay, E. & Toth, Z., Jan 1 2003, In : Journal of Climate. 16, 1, p. 40-56 17 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

57 Citations (Scopus)

Improved skill for the anomaly correlation of geopotential heights at 500 hPa

Krishnamurti, T. N., Rajendran, K., Vijaya Kumar, T. S. V., Lord, S., Toth, Z., Zou, X., Cocke, S., Ahlquist, J. E. & Navon, I. M., Jun 1 2003, In : Monthly Weather Review. 131, 6, p. 1082-1102 21 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

43 Citations (Scopus)
2002

Adaptive sampling with the ensemble transform Kalman filter. Part II: Field program implementation

Majumdar, S. J., Bishop, C. H., Etherton, B. J. & Toth, Z., May 2002, In : Monthly Weather Review. 130, 5, p. 1356-1369 14 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

99 Citations (Scopus)

Propagation of the effect of targeted observations: The 2000 Winter Storm Reconnaissance program

Szunyogh, I., Toth, Z., Zimin, A. V., Majumdar, S. J. & Persson, A., May 2002, In : Monthly Weather Review. 130, 5, p. 1144-1165 22 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

86 Citations (Scopus)

The economic value of ensemble-based weather forecasts

Zhu, Y., Toth, Z., Wobus, R., Richardson, D. & Mylne, K., Jan 1 2002, In : Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 83, 1, p. 73-83 11 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

148 Citations (Scopus)

The effect of increased horizontal resolution on the NCEP global ensemble mean forecasts

Szunyogh, I. & Toth, Z., May 2002, In : Monthly Weather Review. 130, 5, p. 1125-1143 19 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

18 Citations (Scopus)
2001

Can an ensemble transform Kalman filter predict the reduction in forecast-error variance produced by targeted observations?

Majumdar, S. J., Bishop, C. H., Etherton, B. J., Szunyogh, I. & Toth, Z., Oct 2001, In : Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 127, 578, p. 2803-2820 18 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

51 Citations (Scopus)

Ensemble forecasting in WRF

Toth, Z., Apr 2001, In : Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 82, 4, p. 695-697 3 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

17 Citations (Scopus)

The use of ensembles to identify forecasts with small and large uncertainty

Toth, Z., Zhu, Y. & Marchok, T., Aug 2001, In : Weather and Forecasting. 16, 4, p. 463-477 15 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

59 Citations (Scopus)
2000

Ensemble Forecasting in the Short to Medium Range: Report from a Workshop

Hamill, T. M., Mullen, S. L., Snyder, C., Toth, Z. & Baumhefner, D. P., Nov 2000, In : Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 81, 11, p. 2653-2664 12 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

64 Citations (Scopus)

The effect of targeted dropsonde observations during the 1999 winter storm reconnaissance program

Szunyogh, I., Toth, Z., Morss, R. E., Majumdar, S. J., Etherton, B. J. & Bishop, C. H., Oct 2000, In : Monthly Weather Review. 128, 10, p. 3520-3537 18 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

105 Citations (Scopus)
1999

Comments on: 'Notes on the appropriateness of 'bred modes' for generating initial perturbations'

Toth, Z., Szunyogh, I., Kalnay, E. & Iyengar, G., May 1999, In : Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography. 51, 3, p. 442-449 8 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
8 Citations (Scopus)

Ensemble-based targeting experiments during FASTEX: The effect of dropsonde data from the Lear jet

Szunyogh, I., Toth, Z., Emanuel, K. A., Bishop, C. H., Snyder, C., Morss, R. E., Woolen, J. & Marchok, T., Oct 1999, In : Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 125, 561, p. 3189-3217 29 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

48 Citations (Scopus)

Ensemble transformation and adaptive observations

Bishop, C. H. & Toth, Z., Jun 1 1999, In : Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 56, 11, p. 1748-1765 18 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

191 Citations (Scopus)

Overview of the field phase of the Fronts and Atlantic Storm-Track EXperiment (FASTEX) project

Joly, A., Browning, K. A., Bessemoulin, P., Cammas, J. P., Caniaux, G., Chalon, J. P., Clough, S. A., Dirks, R., Emanuel, K. A., Eymard, L., Gall, R., Hewson, T. D., Hildebrand, P. H., Jorgensen, D., Lalaurette, F., Langland, R. H., Lemaître, Y., Mascart, P., Moore, J. A., Persson, P. O. G. & 5 others, Roux, F., Shapiro, M. A., Snyder, C., Toth, Z. & Wakimoto, R. M., Oct 1999, In : Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 125, 561, p. 3131-3163 33 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

96 Citations (Scopus)